The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, after a series of airstrikes under Operation Absolute Resolve. The development is a setback for Iran, which is facing its own internal unrest. The timing of Maduro’s fall could not be more precarious for Tehran. Protests across Iran began in late December after the Iranian currency rial plunged to record lows, triggering demonstrations that have spread to at least 17 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The unrest has already claimed lives, with at least 16 people killed in violence surrounding the demonstrations. More from our correspondent:
Venezuela had long been one of Iran’s most strategic partners in the Western Hemisphere. The two countries signed more than two hundred and sixty agreements across various sectors, building what both sides call a close alliance rooted in shared opposition to American influence. Iranian sources valued bilateral trade at around three billion dollars. Cooperation also extended into sensitive areas, including collaboration in the oil sector and defence-related technology. Now, the loss of President Nicolas Maduro has raised immediate concerns in Tehran over the fate of billions of dollars in investments and outstanding financial claims. Many of these partnerships were driven by ideological alignment and involved entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The uncertainty comes at a time when Iran itself is struggling with a deep economic crisis and a shortage of foreign currency. The collapse of allied governments, from Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria to Maduro’s government in Venezuela, does not accord Iran geopolitical confidence in the emerging world order. The partnership was vital for both countries under sanctions.
Iran helped Venezuela bypass restrictions by taking crude oil in exchange for discounted fuel and financial support. It also assisted in repairing refineries and operates a drone production facility at a Venezuelan air base, where it trains personnel. Developments in Venezuela appear to have emboldened Iranian protesters. Demonstrators have chanted “Death to the dictator” in reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the current unrest is the largest since 2022. The convergence of external pressure, internal unrest and the collapse of allied governments has further complicated Iran’s position. For Tehran, Maduro’s capture is not only the loss of a strategic partner but a possible signal of wider regional shifts, as protests continue to challenge the regime’s authority.
