The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to September is expected to be below normal this year. Briefing media in New Delhi today, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Dr Mrityunjaya Mohapatra said that the seasonal rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. He said that weak La Niña conditions are currently transitioning to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. He added that the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggests the development of El Niño conditions during the southwest Monsoon season. He further said that IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of next month.

Since 2003, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing the operational long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April, and the second stage or update forecast is issued by the end of May.